Tuesday, February 14, 2006

Looking at the ACC Standings

As the season winds down, I am going to start updating the ACC standings each day and try and breakdown the seeding for the tournament. Here's the first go-round

As of 2/13

1. North Carolina - 10-1
Remaining games: 2/17 @Virginia Tech (4-6), 2/20 vs. Boston College (6-4), 2/26 vs. Duke (10-1)
Outlook: Carolina can be anywhere from a 1 to a 5 seed at this point. With a win or a B.C. loss, they clinch a first round bye in the tournament and at least a top 3 seed.

2. Duke - 10-1
Remaining games: 2/19 @ Miami (5-6), 2/22 vs. Virginia Tech (4-6), 2/26 @ North Carolina (10-1)
Outlook: Duke has clinched a first round bye and can finish no lower than third since they own the tiebreaker with BC and FSU.

3. Maryland - 9-2
Remaining games: 2/16 vs Boston College (6-4), 2/19 @NC State (5-6), 2/23 vs. Clemson (2-8)
Outlook: Maryland needs one more win to clinch the first round bye. A win over BC gives them at least the 3 seed. If they can finish 12-2, they can get the two seed if Duke beats UNC.

4. Boston College - 6-4
Remaining games:2/16 @ Maryland (9-2), 2/20 @ North Carolina (10-1), 2/24 vs. NC State (5-6), 2/26 @ Florida State (6-4)
Outlook: They can finish anywhere from 1 to 8 depending how the next week goes for them. A win Thursday keeps them in the hunt for the first round bye. The FSU game may decide the final bye.

5. Florida State - 6-4
Remaining games: 2/17 vs. Miami (5-6), 2/19 @ Clemson (2-8), 2/23 vs. Wake Forest (3-8), 2/26 vs. Boston College (6-4)
Outlook: They should be able to win their next three and move into the four seed. They have an outside chance of moving into the Top 3, but that would take a total collapse by all three of them.

6. NC State - 5-6
Remaining games: 2/16 @ Clemson (2-8), 2/19 vs. Maryland (9-2), 2/24 @ Boston College (6-4)
Outlook: They have a chance to still claim the last first round bye, but their final two games are tough. They also could finish in the bottom half of the standings if they drop the game to Clemson.

7. Miami - 5-6
Remaining games: 2/17 @ Florida State (6-4), 2/19 vs. Duke (10-1), 2/26 vs. Georgia Tech (2-9).
Outlook: The first two are tough games while the last is winnable so they are in the same boat as NC State

8. Virginia Tech - 4-6
Remaining games: 2/17 vs. North Carolina (10-1), 2/19 @ Georgia Tech (2-9), 2/22 @ Duke (10-1), 2/26 vs. Wake Forest (3-8)
Outlook: Big win over FSU last night keeps them out of the basement for now. They should go 2-2 over the final four games to keep them in the 6-8 range. If not, they could be a sleeper on the first day.

9. Wake Forest - 3-8
Remaining Games: 2/18 vs. Virginia (2-9), 2/23 @ Florida State (6-4), 2/26 @ Virginia Tech (4-6).
Outlook: The big game is Saturday vs. Virginia. Win that I don't see them finishing lower than 11th. Lose and they could be the 12th seed.

10. Clemson - 2-8
Remaining games: 2/16 vs. NC State (5-6), 2/19 vs. Florida State (6-4), 2/23 @ Maryland (9-2), 2/26 @ Virginia (2-9).
Outlook: The first three don't look very winnable so the game vs. UVA could end up deciding last place.

11. Virginia - 2-9
Remaining games: 2/18 @ Wake Forest (3-8), 2/23 vs. Georgia Tech (2-9), 2/26 vs. Clemson (2-9)
Outlook: They should be able to win the remaining 3 and not have to worry about the basement, but how will the team respond after losing to the top 3 teams in the league?

12. Georgia Tech - 2-9
Remaining games: 2/19 vs. Virginia Tech (4-6), 2/23 @ Virginia (2-9), 2/26 @ Miami (5-6).
Outlook: Not looking good to getting out of the cellar. A win over UVA would be big and possibly give them the tiebreaker.

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